Care Robots

Why are the robots coming now? Why aren't they here already, or why not in a hundred years?
Humanoid robots are build up from 4 parts: software, computer hardware (including sensors), mechanical hardware (including electric motors), and batteries. It is only now in 2024 that ALL these parts at a sufficient level. It is emergencing now and not later, because it is possible now, and many want it.
Well, to be more precise, the biggest piece of the puzzle is: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), and this piece is NOT ready yet. Everybody is shouting "our product contains Artificial Intelligence", while it is not much more than machine learning, basic neural nets. The wait is for the technological singularly, which basically is the moment when AGI is smart enough to improve itself. When given this task and enough compute, the speed of development is best described by the words 'technological explosion'.

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The first generations care robots
I expect the fist care robots to only assist the caregiver, and help you with some simple stuff in the house, not really giving care, because the first generation will be pretty dumb and clumsy. Too dangerous, not because of bad intentions but because of being like a child.
How much time does it take to go from one robot generation to the next? I would say 7 years, but maybe that is old fashioned linear thinking. Or maybe not if the next generation is 100x better each time. How good will the 4th generation be? Super-human?! Better than a human in almost everything?! Wow..

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Human care vs Robot care.
Can't compare humans with robots without knowing when. Right now, human care is superior relative to the care robots of today, because there are no real care robots yet! The only care worse than getting no care from a robot, is to get 'care' from a terrible human. It is rare, but sometimes you'll run into "a care giver from hell", who causes a lot of damage every day, and sometimes decides to kill the patient -without consent, to stop the suffering or for financial gain.

Then will come the first generation of care robots, in around 2028. They have very limited capabilities, not safe enough for physical contact. They feel like machines, not like a warm person with a good heart. Also: expensive, $40,000.- (or around the price of a good quality self driving electric car). Good human care is still superior, but they can support the care giver, and help around the house, by setting stuff ready, organizing and cleaning.

But then, the robots will start to get better and better in almost anything. In 2050, the best robots will be better than most humans in almost everything. I can make a long list about how people suck at most everything relative to these superhuman robots. Please don't think that I dislike people. ====
The humanoid care robots, a number of years after the technological singularly
- has super human knowledge about all things care.
- can work 24/7, just some downtime for self maintenance. Note: charging can be done during work.
- if it brakes down, there is a data back-up.
- it does not need money. just power and maintenance.
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But how will it feel to be care-close with a robot? Will it still feel like like a machine, or feel like some kind of living creature? One can program and then choose and fine-tune a character. But how ever well it can act as a human, a robot is not a human.

I am a professional care giver, will I lose my job?
You will not lose your job any time soon. For starters because it is 2024 now. The first humanoid robots will start to do work in around 2028. This first generation will be dumb and clumsy. Their first jobs will be tasks that can not harm people or cause great financial loss. If you are a really good care person/professional, then you know that giving good care ain't a simple job. Often working in care doesn't pay that well, but that is because we all together don't wanna pay much for the care of another person. And because working in care often doesn't pay much, does it do attract less capable people. High quality care ain't an easy job, and doing that job should pay really well. We should not trust care to less capable people. The first generation of robots are not fit to give quality care because a similar reason; too dumb and clumsy. They can not do this job but they can cause a lot of damage. What they can do in care, is: assist the care giver, and help you with stuff in the house.

And there is one more reason why you will not lose your care job any time soon. The birthrate in many counties is too low, meaning that woman on average make less new little humans than are needed to keep the amount of people in a country constant. More people die than get born. There will be more old people, less young people. There will NOT be enough people of working age to carry the country! Robot development is therefore being supported by many countries, especially China, to fill the coming gap in the work-force. We hope that people + robots will be enough to prevent a collapse of societies. A bit strange to hear as we have always been warned about overpopulation.

But then, in around 2050, the capacities of the by then 4rd generation of humanoid robots has become like superhuman. The whole world will be so different by that time. Care robots can do almost all the work. Not sure if there will be a need for money. Robots doalmost all the work, for free. But I can imagine that you can still earn some kind of credit if you add good to the world, including giving care. Many people will prefer human-care or a mix.

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The financial cost of a care Robot care.
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