Somehow, biological live on earth came to be and started to evolve. Early humans -and some other animals- used simple tools made from: stone, wood, leather and such natural materials. When did people go beyond these simple tools and created the first machines? Being Dutch I'd say the windmill was the first machine. Point is that people "gave birth" to complex technologies at some points in history. The developments aren't linear; at this moment (2007-01) we can speak of an explosive growth of technology. So, where will that bring us?
Virtual experiments to boost developments
In about 1987 I visited a place where they had an extremely expensive helium cooled super-computer that was capable of rendering 3D object animations with light reflections. Only the major companies could afford to rent that machine and the specialized crew, per minute. Today I can do the same on a consumer computer.
Computers can create a virtual universe. This universe is yet a very primitive place relative to the real thing, but more and more is being developed. 3D computer graphics started in the late 1970's with just simple 3D shapes. The super computers of today can work with all kinds of virtualsations, like: Solid shapes, Flueds, Motion, Waves, Radiation, Material properties, Vibrations, Temperature, Resonance, Gravity, Magnetism, Chemical reactions, Nuclear reactions, Chemical growth, Biological growth, Social behavior, Network dynamics. All highly detailed.
But not every known aspect of nature can at this time be included in one simulation, and only the most expensive computers of today can work on the complex parts. How will that be in another twenty years? If the developments continue, I can then do more at home than what some do with super computers today. And the super computers of 2027 will do amazing simulations compared to today.
Although reality is so complex that it can never be truly be simulated, virtualisation is great tool for developing whatever (yes; for entertainment too). When the point is reached where we can speak of a "complete virtual universe" (how to define the level of reality?? I guess relative to the first version, for we have no idea how much reality there really is).
A development that would today need a lot of: effort, money, time, specialized people, materials and space, could then be done in one or two days, with hardly any budget and such. I could then buy a virtual model of a large high bypass turbo jet engine to do realistic experiments with, for 9 dollars and 99 cents (if we're still stuck with money at that time).
Computing power is one thing this virtual universe needs, but we can't do anything without good software, and the input of knowledge & models. So; we have to collect and share knowledge, and find the best ways of putting it into a virtual world.
The the speed-up of scientific developments can have a huge effect on the way we live out lives, although; we will still be humans.
Not in twenty years, but possible at some time we might choose -with the help of new technologies- to slowly alter the human kind to what we -at that time- think would be an improvement. Strange, even scarry, but it can be beautiful too.
Grid computing
A personal computer can do a lot of things as a stand-alone like: communication, administration, getting and giving information, working with pictures and sound, and entertainment. But if you want to do heavy stuff like realistic simulations in a complete 3D environment, you need a heavy computer. But most individuals have no budget for a super computer, and for many simulations one super computer isn't even enough.
A group of people or companies can together buy a super computer and share it, having local or remote access to it. If that one computer brakes down though, no one has computer access, and if this one super computer isn't powerful enough, there is a problem.
A more independent and flexible way is by connecting a flexible number of computers by a network that together act as one super computer. This is what grid computing is.
The computers connected to this collective can range from personal computers to super computer to even the chips in household equipment. If one processing unit brakes down, the others keep the collective alive. The size of the collective is in theory unlimited.
This collective approach works because people sleep and while awake don't continuesly work with a computer, and when working with it; not using all the computing power. There can be automatic rules in effect to divide the processing power when many people simultaneously want to do heavy stuff. There could be different kind of collectives, for like: general use, scientific, commercial, corporate, artistic, and gaming.
Why isn't this a common reality today (2007-01)?
The network connections need to be really fast, much faster than most individuals have today. For some "jobs" it doesn't really matter; the "tasks" that need to be calculated are send, and when all calculated results return, the job is ready. But things like virtual reality need almost instant results; the image and all must be ready in 1/30 of a second. So: the client computer sending a job to the controller, it splitting the job in tasks, distributiing them to "agent" computers, processing the tasks, returning the results to the controller, sending the job's result to the client, and finally displaying it. This should all happen within 1/30 of a second.
When if the network connections get that fast and grid computing becomes a common thing, people can do amazingly heavy stuff at home like never before.
Next to really fast network connections, for everybody to have access to supper computing power, each personal computer needs to be a: client, controller, and agent at the same time.
Independent machines
Machines are still as smart and alive as as a pile of sand, but "they" are evolving more independent of human creation and nursery every day. We are doing that.
What to do when we get to the point where machines are "grown up", being independent and having no more need for human support? When machines start to complaining about their rights. Will this lead to war between humans and machines? Possible but not absolutely necessary. We don't kill our parents after being grown up, so why should machines do so? There will be benefits and conflicts.
Are we humans in control over this technological evolution? Not really, people don't plan far into the future, so where will that bring us? We don't guess and don't seem to care either. We aren't organized on this, as usual.
Depending people
People themselves do not evolve nearly as fast as the machines they create, but people can addapt to a chainging environment pretty well. Technology has become a fundamental part of many people's life, we depend upon it so much that when if for example a sunburst would nock down most electronics, people would die by the millions, setting the human life on Earth back to simple farming and hunting. most already can't survive without it (without realizing or wanting to realize that). The poor farmers of
New stuff
The main motion to develop new stuff, is mainly to make a relative higher financial provid. Not the health of people, not the health of the rest of our nature, not for the good of the day after tomorrow.
What can be expected (If no major disaster will happen):
- An exponential groth of computer processing power and data storage.
- Software that is able to develop software and hardware with less human support.
- Computers able to speak on a very realistic tone.
- Global internet access, high speed, a part of almost anything we do.
- Multi touch displays, and displays replacing many buttons.
- People speaking of the time before and after the internet.
- New molecular structures -> new materials -> new types of products.
- More direct human body/mind to machine connections.
- A better understanding and control over nano-mechanics (the small stuff).
- Much easier DNA read-out.
- Selection of the desired egg-sperm combination.
- Designing the DNA of: plands, animals, and then after the human DNA.
- One new universal artificial language (finally!).
- Space travel, will really take-off ONLY when if a propellentless propulsion system is discovered that creates a linear gravity force. And if that is a safe and cheap system, the need for roads and rails on land will slowly disappear, including runways.
- A more evolved understanding of the basic elements (space, energy, gravity, life, love?) and of the combinations that they make.
Inside the human body
Machines are not only growing and evolving as a "stand alone", they're also getting closer to our body, even inside our body. First there was no telephone, the first generation telephones were "fixed", now we have mobile phones, even handsfree on the ear. Next could be communication technology implanted inside our body, in direct or wireless contact with the brain. Today it is ethical OK to replace broken body parts by artificial ones, tomorrow it will be OK to enhance your body with extra functionality, the day after tomorrow your kid will not be accepted to school without proper technology installed.
Organic Designs
Technological objects used to be made from pretty large shapes of:
- Trees (wood)
- Animals (leather, bones, glue, grease)
- Plants (vibers, colors, medicine)
- Stone and Sand (baken stone, ceramic, glas)
- Some metals (iron, gold, silver, copper, lead)
The materials used in technological objects of today add on the variety of the older materials, although many new materials replaced the use of older ones. In all these thousands of years we have searched for and found:
- a larger variety of atoms and combinations of atoms: molecules.
- ways to built bigger and smaller shapes
- shapes of higher precision
- stronger but at the same time lighter materials and shapes
- ways to build more durable objects that need less care
- engines that power it instead of: us, animals, wind or rivers.
- but also ways to build cheap and easy
- New are: electronics, engines, chips, lazerlight, ..
A don't think this will become a complete and accurate historical list, there's just too much!
So, how about the materials and shapes used in the technology of the future? Point of a machine is that it can do the things we want it to do. A machine that is made from a flued or even non-atomic stuff would be fine too. The search for new molecule structures and ways to built stuff will continue, and who knows will we discover new basic things like atoms and forces that can have a huge
Beyond the human body
I don't think we will becoming cyborgs (half human half machine) because we don't want to. But the ability to repair the body will improve (and fix a broken spinal cord.. would be "nice").
Living together
Early humans lived in small groups, inside a very small system of people and nature. Then people started to trade, travel, talk, specialize, developing complex technologies, and exchanging not only goods but also knowledge. First villages arised, than towns, cities, countries. Now we have the United States of America, the United countries of Europe, Big China, the suppressed countries of the Third World... Not all united yet, but the groups are getting bigger. Slowly we evolve towards a global society. (Hard to believe with all these stupid wars going on). And today the internet is the start of what will become a global collective knowledge system; "a shared brain". Slowly we grow towards a cyborg collective.
Good and Bad
Is this explosive technological evolution what we want?!
Naturally, as most things, it can be used for good and bad things. Question is: are we in control? Will technology at some point take control if we don't?
Is life worth protecting?
Is technology worth protecting?
Is technology part of nature, just not biological?
Could a symbiose between humans and advanced technology be a good thing?
We could and should make genius plans, take control and do what is good for our future, but we mostly don't; we play dumb human games.
Ants
An ant does what it "thinks" is right.
There are no ants that know it all and tell the others what to do.
Yet, they manage to build the whole ant system and survive.
People are not that different.
We have leaders who bark, but they don't know it all, not even close.
The more you know, the more you know what all you don't know.
No one knows how all technology works, but still; together we managed to survive, give birth to technology, and help it grow towards independence.
Collectiefe kennisbanken
Er is nog zo ongelofelijk veel meer mogelijk, dan waar mensen op dit moment (02-2003) kennis van hebben. Alles wat vroeger mogelijk was, en alles wat in te toekomst mogelijk is, is nu ook mogelijk, omdat alle basis elementen van verleden en toekomst aanwezig zijn in het dynamisch NU. Om buitengewone kennis op te bouwen, te behouden en toe te passen, kunnen mensen en machines samen kennisbanken opzetten. Het hoofd doel van kennisbanken is het dienen van het menselijk welzijn. Mensen hebben voor hun welzijn groot belang bij een schone aarde met een gezond ecologisch systeem, dus als het goed is zal een kennisbank ontworpen voor het welzijn wan mensen ook positief zijn voor de natuur.
Waar ik aan zit te denken is zijn elektronische en dynamische kennisbanken, die zeer snel toegankelijk zijn voor mensen én machines. Kennisbank technologie kan in een explosief tempo nieuwe kennis creëren, gebaseerd op bestaande kennis en op input van nieuwe kennis, aangeleverd door mensen en machines.
Het kennis vuur brand al, maar langzaam. 2 remmende factoren:
- Kunstmatige intelligentie, nodig voor kennisbank technologie, staat nog in de kinderschoenen
- Nieuwe kennis ontwikkelen en beschermen kost vaak veel tijd en geld, maar het verkopen van nieuwe kennis kan veel geld opleveren, daarom word de ontwikkeling meestal niet openbaar gedeeld. Maar het niet delen kan de ontwikkeling van kennis vertragen of zelfs stoppen.
Onze samenleving draait helaas om geld. Een meer ideale samenleving zonder geld is mogelijk, maar niet binnenkort te verwachten.
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LaesieWorks
Thoughts
